Opinion polls are closed and counting is underway in the Victorian election
And here it is – voting has now closed in the Victorian state election. It will be a slow start into the evening when the countdown is underway.
In the last election of 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in the lower house, leaving the Coalition with only 27 seats.
You'll remember it being heralded as 'And the slide' and Labor are no doubt expecting the same outcome tonight – polls suggest they may lose a few seats.
Let's take a look at the state of the game:
There are 88 seats contested and to form a majority government a party must win 45 seats. Opinion polls predict Labor will win a third term, but are under threat in key areas. There has been quite a bit of chatter about the potential for minority government.
A Newspoll published late on Friday showed Labor is on track to return despite a swing of nearly 3%.
Labor started with 55 seats in the lower house. The Newspoll, published by The Australian, managed to retain 45 to 50 seats.
The coalition has 27 seats and must take up an additional 18 to govern directly.
However, the latest Resolve polls show Labor could lose between eight and 12 seats, putting it in danger of slipping into a minority government, when it must rely on the Greens or independents for a majority of workers.
Independent consultancy RedBridge Group estimates Labor will get between 41 and 48 seats and the Coalition will end up in the range of 27 to 33 seats.
Some election results can come down to less than a handful of votes. Here are the expected seats to get to the wire:
Labor risks losing Melton, Werribee, Point Cook, Hawthorn and Box Hill, while the Greens hope to win Labor seats in Northcote, Richmond and Albert Park.
Teal is expected to be a problem for the Liberal party tonight, threatening the Kew seat vacated by Tim Smith, Hawthorn and Brighton.
It's gonna be a big night. Let's talk!
Ben Raue
Turning my mind to the teal challenge of the inner southeast Melbourne seats, there is a mixed picture.
We don't have much of a preference in Mornington, but independent Kate Lardner is clearly in second place in the primary vote with the Liberal candidate poll well under 40%, so I think Lardner has potentially the best chance of winning for the urban independent flowing south of the river.
At Kew, independent Sophie Torney is currently earning 19.3% based on four booths, which puts her in third place. He also lost in preference numbers to the Liberal candidate, but that doesn't matter unless he can overtake the Labor candidate.
Independent Melissa Lowe is also in third place on Hawthorn, but slightly closer to the sitting Labor MP. If he can overtake Labour (either on minor candidate preferences or on changing trends as the tally continues), he is in a strong position to win – former Liberal MP John Pesutto only has 38.6% of the vote, which is likely not enough to win if Labor preferences flow to independents.
Nomi Kaltmann did not do well at Caulfield, coming in fourth, but there was a substantial swing against Liberal MP David Southwick that suggested Labor could win the seat.
Independents at Brighton and Sandirngham are not competitive.